Within the view of the analysts at Societe Generale, the trail of least resistance for EUR/USD is to the upside except issues over the US election and Eurozone development prospects return.
“ECB Chief Economist Phillip Lane mentioned that ‘the forex ‘feeds into our international and European forecasts and that in flip does feed into our financial coverage settings’.
The timing is sweet – intervention, verbal or in any other case, works greatest when the market is over-positioned, which is unquestionably the case at the moment. However, the implicit risk is empty. Partly, as a result of the EUR/USD is merely again to its common stage since 1999, so it is solely over-stretched, within the brief time period. And since the ECB could not be capable to ease in a manner that weakens the euro.
Within the meantime, perhaps an over-stretched market, and maybe a rethink on relative development prospects or perhaps a rethink on the percentages of President Trump being re-elected, will set off an honest EUR/USD correction (to 1.17?) However can be a purchaser if it does, in search of a transfer right into a 1.25-1.35 vary on a 2-3-year horizon.”